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Ryanair reported a stronger-than-expected first-half profit on Monday, supported by robust summer demand and improved aircraft deliveries from Boeing, prompting the airline to raise its full-year passenger forecast.
The Irish carrier, Europe’s largest by passenger numbers, posted an after-tax profit of 2.54 billion euros ($2.96 billion) for the six months to September, up 42% from 1.8 billion euros a year earlier.
The result came in slightly ahead of a company-compiled poll of analysts, which had projected a 2.5 billion euro profit.
The first half, covering the busy northern hemisphere summer season, typically accounts for the bulk of Ryanair’s annual earnings.
Share price of Ryanair, however, fell by 2.64% during pre market trading.
Strong summer demand drives recovery in fares
Average fares rose 13% year-on-year in the first half, offsetting the 7% decline recorded last year.
The airline said it expects to recover the full extent of that decline in its current financial year to March 31, 2026, supporting what it described as “reasonable” net profit growth for the full year.
“While Q3 forward bookings are slightly ahead of (PY) prior year, particularly across the Oct. mid-term and Christmas peaks, we would caution that we face more challenging PY fare comps in H2 making fare growth more challenging,” Chief Executive Michael O’Leary said in a statement.
Boeing deliveries help expand capacity
Ryanair increased its passenger target to 207 million for the year ending March 2026, up from a previous estimate of 206 million, after receiving 23 Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft in the first half.
The improved delivery pace allowed the airline to add capacity for the current quarter.
The company expects to take delivery of the remaining six aircraft from its current order by February, which would mark the first time in years that its fleet is complete heading into the summer season.
“The team at Boeing have transformed the place in the last 12 months,” O’Leary said told analysts.
“For the first time in many years we will have a full fleet complement by the time we switch to the summer schedule…and I think that will enable strong 4% traffic growth to about 215 million.”
What do the results mean for investors?
Analysts broadly welcomed the results, noting Ryanair’s consistent performance and prudent forward guidance.
Capital Markets analysts Ruairi Cullinane and Jakub Glinkowski said the airline’s reaffirmed fiscal 2026 forecasts and strong first-half showing should prompt modest upgrades to earnings estimates.
“The carrier is being prudent with its company expectations in fiscal 2026,” they said, adding, that they continued to see longer-term attractions to Ryanair’s low-cost and high-margin business model.
JP Morgan analysts said the carrier’s expectation of recovering last year’s fare decline should reassure investors concerned about demand heading into winter.
“This should alleviate any concerns the market might have on demand for Ryanair into the coming winter,” the analysts said.
“Ryanair’s first-half results were solid all round,” they said, adding that the positive commentary should lift shares modestly.
“Ryanair outclimbed its competitors again, with a record 2.54 billion euros in net profit for the first half,” eToro analyst Mark Crouch said.
The Irish budget airline is proving that a little turbulence in the economy doesn’t faze it, he added, noting its 13% increase in fares and rising passenger forecast for fiscal 2026.
With strong summer travel demand, improving aircraft supply, and steady pricing, Ryanair appears well-positioned to maintain its growth momentum into 2025, analysts added.
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